amsterdam_pete said:matt_MKE said: ...we're creating a generation dependent on cardiovascular risk...
Pushing back on amsterdam_pete here. The "earlier than weight loss explains" argument is weaker than this thread makes it sound. Blood pressure and inflammatory markers move fast and are downstream of early weight loss, so the mechanism is not as cleanly separable as the summaries imply.
matt_MKE said:Prescribed on cardiovascular grounds rather than for weight, and almost everything written for patients assumes the opposite.
I want to bring up the cardiovascular angle on cardiovascular risk.
The SELECT trial demonstrated a 20% reduction in MACE with semaglutide 2.4mg[1]. This is practice-changing because the CV benefit appears to be independent of the degree of weight loss — suggesting direct vascular and anti-inflammatory mechanisms.
For cardiovascular risk, this means we need to think beyond the primary outcome and consider the cardiovascular implications. The all-cause mortality reduction (HR 0.81) is the most clinically meaningful signal.
[1] Lincoff AM, et al. N Engl J Med. 2023;389(24):2221-2232.
InsuranceTom said:The "earlier than weight loss explains" argument is weaker than this thread makes it sound.
NNT calculation for cardiovascular risk clinical endpoints: NNT = 1/ARR (absolute risk reduction).
From SELECT trial: MACE at 39 months — 6.5% semaglutide vs 8.0% placebo. ARR = 1.5%. NNT = 67 over 3.3 years.
Compare to established therapies:
| Intervention | NNT | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|
| Semaglutide (MACE) | 67 | 3.3 years |
| Statins primary prevention (MI) | ~100 | 5 years |
| Aspirin secondary prevention | ~77 | 2 years |
These NNTs are clinically meaningful and comparable to accepted cardiovascular interventions.
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ingrid_STO said:NNT calculation for cardiovascular risk clinical endpoints: NNT = 1/ARR (absolute risk reduction).
ingrid_STO said:...cardiovascular risk is just another fad...
I understand the skepticism — we've all seen "miracle" weight loss solutions come and go. But consider what makes GLP-1 agonists different:
- Phase 3 RCTs with thousands of participants (not 20-person pilot studies)
- Published in NEJM, JAMA, Lancet (not press releases)
- Replicated across multiple independent research groups
- Proven cardiovascular and renal benefits beyond weight loss
- Biological mechanism fully characterized at the receptor level
This isn't a fad — it's a new drug class supported by the highest level of clinical evidence. The comparison to past fads is understandable but inappropriate.