pete_nash said:It is worth asking what the claim would look like if it were false.
That is right, and it stops being right at the edges. The general case is well behaved; the interesting cases in this thread are all at the boundary where the general case breaks.
PharmD_Rodriguez said:Agreed, with the usual condition: that holds for the average and this board is a collection of individuals.
Genuinely useful, thank you. I had the facts and not the framework.
pete_nash said:It is worth asking what the claim would look like if it were false.
Filing a mild objection. Mild because I might be wrong; an objection because nobody has addressed the case that does not fit. Pushing back on the anecdote-stacking. Twenty people reporting the same thing is twenty samples from the same self-selected pool, not twenty independent confirmations.
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Shop Reference StandardsThe figures, for anyone assembling their own picture. Say what you would expect to see if you were wrong, before you look. It is a small discipline and it changes what you notice.
I would rather be corrected than agreed with, if it comes to it.