Dr.KarenChen said:There is a difference between no evidence and evidence of no effect, and this subject is one where the two get swapped freely in both directions.
That holds where the measurement is reliable. Where it is noisy — and a lot of what gets tracked here is noisy — the same reasoning produces confident nonsense.
denise_HTX said:International shipping tracking for cross-border ordering orders: my experience with customs in the US when ordering from overseas: Seized and…
Saving this. It is the first explanation that did not require me to already understand it. Sending this to two other people who asked me the same thing last week.
Dr.KarenChen said:There is a difference between no evidence and evidence of no effect, and this subject is one where the two get swapped freely in both directions.
Careful with the causal language. Two things moving together in a period when five things changed is not a mechanism, and stating it as one makes the thread less useful to somebody reading it later.
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Shop Reference StandardsOne concrete data point for the thread. The boring version of this is the one that works, and the boring version is: measure a baseline, change one variable, wait, measure again under the same conditions. Nobody wants that answer and it is still the answer.
Moderator note: leaving this open. It is being argued well and the disagreement is the useful part. Tagging this one for the weekly digest.