Dr.NephBHM_UK said:If two explanations both fit, the useful question is which one predicts something the other does not.
Agreed on the substance. I would put less weight on the timescale, because two months of anything is not enough to distinguish a trend from a wobble.
mia_MS2 said:Right, and one flattering data point from a group buy is not consistency.
That reframing is the part I needed. Printing the relevant bit and taking it with me.
Dr.NephBHM_UK said:If two explanations both fit, the useful question is which one predicts something the other does not.
Pushing back on Dr.NephBHM_UK here. The counter-case has not been addressed. Somebody upthread described the situation that does not fit, and the thread moved on rather than engaging with it, which is the failure mode this board is supposed to avoid.
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Ask again with the specifics and you will get a better answer than this one.
Moderator note: leaving this open. It is being argued well and the disagreement is the useful part. Report rather than reply if it drifts again.