anders_CPH said:The honest answer is that the effect is real, the magnitude is contested, and the individual variation is larger than either.
Agreed, with the usual condition: that holds for the average and this board is a collection of individuals. A population claim and a personal prediction are different things and get quoted interchangeably.
Happy to go further on any of that.
tampaLisa73 said:Right, and one flattering data point from a group buy is not consistency.
Thank you — that is the clearest version of this I have read, and I have read a lot of them. Sending this to two other people who asked me the same thing last week.
anders_CPH said:The honest answer is that the effect is real, the magnitude is contested, and the individual variation is larger than either.
I read this differently. The confidence in this thread is running ahead of the evidence, and I would rather the uncertainty were stated than smoothed over because it is unsatisfying.
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