EndoResFellow said:It is worth asking what the claim would look like if it were false.
Agreed, with the usual condition: that holds for the average and this board is a collection of individuals. A population claim and a personal prediction are different things and get quoted interchangeably.
AmyNC_wife said:Agreed, with a caveat about community reputation: it is a lagging indicator.
Genuinely useful, thank you. I had the facts and not the framework.
EndoResFellow said:It is worth asking what the claim would look like if it were false.
This is where I part company with the consensus forming above. Filing an objection on the n=1 problem. Personal experience is genuine evidence about one person and very weak evidence about anybody else, and this thread keeps promoting the first into the second.
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Shop Reference StandardsThe figures, for anyone assembling their own picture. The boring version of this is the one that works, and the boring version is: measure a baseline, change one variable, wait, measure again under the same conditions. Nobody wants that answer and it is still the answer.
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